National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 211734
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft has been investigating a tropical
wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands this
afternoon. The aircraft found evidence of a sharp surface trough but
confirmed that a well-defined circulation has not formed. Although
the system is currently disorganized, at least gradual development
is anticipated and a tropical depression could form later this
weekend or early next week. The wave is forecast to move quickly
westward for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and
interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 14:54:50 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:24:56 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 211453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry
this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite
disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane
at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the
intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and
the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so
its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower.

Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of
315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on
the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes
were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue
northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a
break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry
should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction
ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near
Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is
still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the
forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the
5-day period.

Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening
is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for
little
change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't
rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or
tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could
then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to
baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane
again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast
is
now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to
determine what impacts the system may have on the island but
interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 22.0N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 23.3N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 25.0N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 26.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 27.8N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 30.6N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 34.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 38.5N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 22.0, -65.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 17

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 211452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...CENTER OF JERRY PASSING WELL NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 65.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 65.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to turn
northward on Sunday and then accelerate northeastward early next
week. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue to
pass well north Puerto Rico today and pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds of Jerry remain near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during
the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
FONT15 KNHC 211452
PWSAT5
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17           

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019              

1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                           

                                                                   

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR       

LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                             

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY             

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z
WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z
THU
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7(
7)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)  44(74)  
1(75)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)  
1(34)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)  
X(12)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 211452
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  65.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  65.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N  64.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N  66.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N  66.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.4N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.8N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.6N  66.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH
DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.5N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 38.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  65.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY