National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

Tropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:34:18 GMT

Tropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 21:22:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

478 
WTNT45 KNHC 172032
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with
deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more
separated from the low-level center.  However, there is still
enough
organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a
little longer.  The most recent satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt.  Ernesto
will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become
post-tropical this evening.  Little change in strength is predicted
during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly
across the northern Atlantic.  Global models indicate that the
cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the
system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central
portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.

The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt.  Now that the
system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid
northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  There has been little change to the track
guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.

The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread
gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the
United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday.  Information on
rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products
issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in
products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at
www.metoffice.gov/uk.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 49.1N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 51.1N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  18/1800Z 53.2N  14.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0600Z 54.8N   5.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

552 
FONT15 KNHC 172032
PWSAT5
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11         

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018              

2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR     

LATITUDE 49.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                              

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY             

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z
TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z
WED
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   


Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

...ERNESTO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 49.1, -29.8 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

298 
WTNT35 KNHC 172032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018
500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

...ERNESTO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.1N 29.8W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM N OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 49.1 North, longitude 29.8 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and a rapid
northeast or east-northeast motion is expected during the next day
or so. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone and its
remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday
night and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts.
Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical this evening, and some
gradual weakening is forecast to occur Saturday and Saturday night.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal zone
by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be
found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the
United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office
at www.metoffice.gov/uk.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

177 
WTNT25 KNHC 172032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052018
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N  29.8W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE 160SE 100SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 270SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N  29.8W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N  31.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.1N  23.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 160SE 140SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.2N  14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 160SE 140SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 54.8N   5.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.1N  29.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


362
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles north-northwest of the
Azores.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive and
development of this system is not expected while it moves
westward at about 15 mph. This system is forecast to move through
the Windward Islands on Saturday where it could bring locally heavy
rainfall to portions of the area this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low... near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

4,828,497
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