National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Tropical Storm Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Tropical Storm Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 21:14:10 GMT

Local Statement for Wakefield, VA

Issued at 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Tropical Storm Maria Graphics

Tropical Storm Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 20:41:57 GMT

Tropical Storm Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 20:41:57 GMT

Hurricane Lee Graphics

Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 20:37:30 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 21:22:10 GMT

Tropical Storm Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Tropical Storm Maria Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 20:33:52 GMT

Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 43

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 262033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

There has been little change to Maria's cloud pattern since the
previous advisory.  The center of the large circulation is located
near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to
west-northwesterly shear and dry air intrusion.  Reconnaissance
aircraft have not found any SFMR winds higher than 60 kt for quite
some time, so the initial intensity has been reduced to that value.
Cool waters and moderate shear should cause some additional
decrease in wind speed over the next day or so, but little
change in strength is forecast later in the period as Maria
accelerates east-northeastward over the north Atlantic.  Maria
should complete extratropical transition in about 96 hours, and
could merge with a large extratropical low in about 5 days.

Maria is continuing its slow northward motion around the
western side of a subtropical ridge.  The mid-latitude westerlies
are forecast to dip southward as a large trough moves across
eastern
North America later this week.  This should cause Maria to turn
east-northeastward by Thursday, and then accelerate ahead of the
trough by late in the week.  The track guidance has trended
slightly
slower and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The new
official forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring some
direct impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast through
Wednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning
and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast
of
the United States.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office for more
information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 34.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 34.8N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 35.5N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 36.0N  71.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 36.3N  69.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 38.3N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 44.0N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z 51.5N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 262032
PWSAT5
                                                                   

TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43           

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017              

2100 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017                                           

                                                                   

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR       

LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   

WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                             

                                                                   

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                 

   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

                                                                   

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                

                                                                   

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST    

   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                 

   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                 

   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                 

FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS              

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE              

    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING           

        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)              

   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN          

        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)     

                                                                   

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                 

X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                      

PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION
WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.            

PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY             

64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                

                                                                   

                                                                   

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -  

                                                                   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM

  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z
SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 

             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z
SUN
                                                                   

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)  
(120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

LOCATION       KT                                                  

                                                                   

HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X(
6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X(
3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X(
6)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  2   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
DOVER DE       34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  5   4( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)  
X(14)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  6   6(12)   5(17)   X(17)   1(18)   X(18)  
X(18)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  7   6(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)  
X(18)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  4   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  8   6(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)  
X(19)
 
NORFOLK VA     34 10   6(16)   4(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)  
X(21)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34 11   8(19)   4(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)  
X(24)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34 13   8(21)   4(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)  
X(26)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X(
4)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  5   3( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)  
X(11)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34 40   7(47)   4(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)  
X(52)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34 10   5(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)  
X(18)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34 16   5(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)  
X(25)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34 12   5(17)   3(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)  
X(21)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  6   3( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)  
X(12)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  5   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)  
X(10)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  5   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X(
8)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X(
5)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X(
3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X(
7)
 
$$                                                                 

FORECASTER BROWN                                                   

Summary for Tropical Storm Maria (AT5/AL152017)

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 the center of Maria was located near 34.1, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Maria Public Advisory Number 43

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 262032
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 73.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet to Cape Hatteras

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to west of Ocracoke Inlet
* North of Cape Hatteras to Duck

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential
for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
tonight.  A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on
Wednesday, and a turn toward the east-northeast is anticipated on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass
east
of the coast of North Carolina during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Maria is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.  NOAA buoy 41025
located about 15 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h).  A wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h) was recently reported
at Manteo, North Carolina.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
through Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. 
For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the
east coast of the United States.  These swells are also affecting
Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 35

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 262031
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Satellite images indicate that the cloud-top temperatures in the
eyewall of Lee have cooled this afternoon, with about the same warm
temperatures in the eye.  This indicates Lee remains on a
strengthening trend, and the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt,
near the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique figure.  Lee has about 24
hours to intensify before shear increases and water temperatures
begin to cool.  Most of the guidance now show Lee becoming a major
hurricane, and the official forecast follows suit.  A more
significant weakening is expected by the end of the week as the
hurricane moves over much colder waters and into higher shear.
Model
guidance is virtually unanimous on this scenario, and only minor
changes were made to the previous forecast. The small tropical
cyclone should become absorbed in a large extratropical low over
the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean within 4 or 5 days.

Lee is moving westward at 8 kt.  The hurricane should gradually
turn
to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it
moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter,
Lee
is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster
mid-latitude flow.  The most significant change to the previous
forecast is that the model guidance has trended westward with the
first part of the forecast, closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF solution.
Since the 12 UTC ECMWF is very consistent with its previous
forecast, the NHC track forecast is adjusted westward near the
point of recurvature, then is blended back with the previous
forecast closer to the corrected consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 29.9N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 30.0N  55.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 31.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 32.4N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 41.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 48.5N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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